On Economics

I'm an economist; it's what I do and what I love. I know you might be surprised, since I never talk about it here on my personal blog, but now it's time to have that discussion. Specifically, I want to say something about the Housing Bubble.


(Insert groans; I know that everyone is sick of this topic.)

I listen to people talk about our current recession quite often. They talk about how and why we got here, where we're at, and where we're going. I get a lot of questions about it, too.

Here's a phrase I often hear from other professionals, at conferences, and read in the paper: No one saw this crisis coming. No one could have predicted it.

Is that a total load of crap, or what?

Whenever someone says that, I can't help but think s/he is an idiot. Seriously. No one could have seen this coming?! That's completely inaccurate, and here's two reasons:

(1) People did predict the problem. Smart people. They gave presentations and wrote memos and sometimes kicked and screamed, BUT they were poo-poohed or shushed or ignored.

(2) I predicted it.

Okay, I'm over-inflating myself. I didn't know just how bad the problem was or how severe the effecrs would be, but even I could see it coming. I heard my peers in college classes talking about their crazy mortgage loans (adjustable rates? paying only the interest? what?!); and I knew that if a college kid without a job could get a mortgage loan, there was a problem with the system.

Nathan and I also have a tradition of going on the Tour of Homes every summer. We first went in 2005. In 2006, as we walked away from a particularly swanky, supposedly middle-class, brand-new subdivision, we said to each other, "The pace and price of housing construction is not sustainable. Our society can't keep doing this. We're in a housing bubble, and it's going to burst."

I had crunched some numbers, and I knew it was true. But Nate? He's not very good with numbers. He hadn't "crunched" anything. He simply looked around, saw what was happening, and he knew.

So when I hear some Tool telling me that "no one saw this coming; no one could have seen this coming," I always secretly whisper,

Bull---t.


* The image in this post is taken from the website http://www.steadfastfinances.com/
I am in no way affiliated with that website. I do not directly endorse, support, oppose, or otherwise have an opinion on their goals and viewpoints.

Heavenly Father always knows

Those of you who read Amy's blog already know this, but here's the news for the rest of you: Nate's brother Mike and Mike's wife Amy are going to move in with us. Mike lost his job recently and it has been difficult to find a new one; Amy is battling cancer (and kicking cancer's butt!). We've talked about the possibility of this move for a couple months, and then this week I got the call from Amy.

So now I've switched into my typical moving mode: slighty stressed, brain in overdrive, planning every last detail... etc. All the things that I'm use to, since Nate and I move 5 times in 4 years. It's kinda funny, actually: since we've moved into our house, I tell everyone that I am NEVER MOVING AGAIN in my life. That much might hold true, but apparently that doesn't mean I can avoid being a central party to a couple more moves. So, after Mike and Amy move in here and back out, I can add two more moves to my list, keeping up my one-per-year average. Too funny.

But you're probably wondering about the title of this post and how it relates to what I'm writing. So I should get back on track...

After I got off the phone with Amy on Tuesday, I went into the basement and started analyzing the space. I made a mental checklist of what needs to be done. I've done this plently of times since we started discussing the possible move, but this time I felt like I was looking with a whole new set of eyes.

For instance, I really looked at the windows this week. We were blessed to find a house with HUGE windows. They are massively helpful for my s.a.d. because they let so much light into the house. Which is also their pitfall. Lots of light at night. Plus less insullation against the weather. In the basement, there are no curtains for the windows. None. But the pully system for curtains (what is it called?!) is still in place, so I can just make/buy curtains and put them up! Realizing this, I started going through my fabric collection to see if I had anything that might work for the windows.

Lo-and-behold, I had fabric that would work. Great fabric. Perfect fabric, in fact...

Three years ago, when we were house-sitting and living in Eugene, I went fabric shopping more often than I do now. On one such trip I came across some great discount fabric. $1 per yard for this heavy, sage-green fabric. I had no use for it. Not even a plan for a use. I didn't really want it, since I had no use for it, but I purchased it anyway. I actually felt a complusion to buy it (which made me worry I was turning into a shopaholic or something... thankfully I haven't!)

Flash back to the present: I still have the fabric. Haven't used it for anything. I've pulled it out a few times over the years and thought about using it, but every time I felt like I was suppose to put it away. And then Tuesday night came, and I took it out once again, and I held it up to the giant windows in my basement.

It's exactly the right size. Right length, right width. Nothing extra, nothing lacking. Perfect.

That moment was a lightbulb to me. I had this overwhelming sense that Heavenly Father knows. He knew we would buy this house; He knew Mike and Amy would come to live with us. I know it sounds mundane, and not like something an All-Powerful Creator would be concerned with, but I think God cares about the little things -- even about having fabric to make curtains. He knows. He knows us, and He loves us.

And I'm grateful for that.

The Evolution of My Front Yard

The only "before" picture of my house, which unfortunately doesn't show the ugly front tree very clearly. It was impressively yucky, so you're not missing much:

After the tree was cut down and some of the shrubbery was removed. This work was done last spring (2009), within the first couple of months after we moved in:

We mostly took a break on the yard until August, when we started puttering around. We needed to re-seed the lawn, and the picture below shows the front after we took out the little patch of grass that was there. It also shows part of the old plumbing system, which was a BEAST of a job to remove:

(Turns out there were two old plumbing systems under there. We've named them The Old System, and The Old Old System.)

N8bear, trenching out the lines for the new sprinkler system:

After all the lines for the new sprinkler system were trenched /dug:

THE NEW FRONT OF MY HOUSE, WITH A TREE!!!!

Grass seed is planted, but hasn't popped up yet. We're expecting to see some sprouts this weekend. I can't wait to post another picture this spring, when the grass is in and the bulbs are in bloom!

I also need to finish the front deck. I took off the old, metal railing and I raised the deck so it's now level, but I need to put on a new railing.